Trading partners will be defined by more than costs
In the long term when technologies reach full maturity and scale, importing countries will have multiple trading partners within a small cost range.
This means they can switch suppliers at a relatively small cost.
In such a future, trading pairs will be largely defined by geopolitical factors, security of supply, diplomatic relationships and alike rather than cost.
In case of Japan, for example, the cost of supply ranges from USD 1.25/kgH2 to USD 1.45/kgH2. The imported energy to Japan from each country in an alternative supply mix varies greatly as represented by flows in the figure.